Last fall, I met a certain friend for dinner at The Cheesecake Factory. I will not state his name here, but this friend is a member of the sports media who covers Tennessee football. Naturally, the conversation soon turned to our beloved Vols. We were discussing the dim prospects for then-Tennessee coach Derek Dooley and my friend said, "Houston, what does that guy bring to the table?" I attempted to recite Dooley's perceived talents and my friend stopped me. "No, I mean, what does he give you? He's not a motivator. He doesn't even give pre-game pep talks. That team comes out of the locker room like they're half asleep. I know. I see them first thing when they come out. Nick Saban is an incredible motivator. Dooley's never been a coordinator, so he doesn't give you a systematic or tactical advantage. Bobby Petrino does that. He's not a dynamic recruiter. He refuses to even go to high school games on Friday nights. The top players in Tennessee feel no reason to play for him. Les Miles is a dynamic recruiter. So what does Dooley give you?"
I got it. My friend had made his point about Dooley. Tennessee AD Dave Hart apparently agreed that Dooley didn't give him anything, because he fired him less than two months later. But my friend also provided a list of the different means by which a head football coach can be a successful one. And that's the backdrop against which I want to discuss the topic of this blog: the four new head football coaches in the SEC. Tennessee replaced Dooley with Butch Jones from Cincinnati. Auburn ousted Gene Chizik and brought in his former Offensive Coordinator Gus Malzahn to replace him. Arkansas, in the wake of the Bobby Petrino motorcycle affair and failed John L. Smith interim experiment, brought in the biggest name of the four new coaches when they lured Bret Bielma from Wisconsin. With Dooley no longer around to save his job for another year, Kentucky replaced Joker Phillips with one of the Stoops boys, hiring Florida State Defensive Coordinator and Bob's little brother Mark. It is with the above-mentioned intangibles in mind that I discuss which of these hires will be most successful in their new positions (and perhaps beyond).
I'll start with Bielma at Arkansas. While Arkansas had an abysmal season last year under Smith, they had been a top 10-15 type program the three prior seasons under Petrino's guidance. If not for his extra-marital shenanigans, the Arkansas program is probably still rolling along as one of the top programs in the SEC West. As it stands, though, Petrino found himself a mistress, put her on a motorcycle, and wound up in a ditch. Arkansas' upward arc in the SEC crashed in that ditch along with Petrino's affair. Enter Interim Coach John L. Smith who guided the Razorbacks to their worst season since Petrino's first, and suddenly Arkansas needed to land a big name just to save face. They shocked a lot of folks when they hired Bielma. Here was the guy who'd lobbed grenades at the SEC while at Wisconsin, criticizing SEC recruiting tactics, suddenly coaching in the SEC. He seemed like a Wisconsin lifer. Now he's a Hawg.
Of the four new coaches in the SEC, Bielma would appear to have the best track record. He's been to the Rose Bowl the past three years and has the last three Big Ten trophies to show for it. But will Bielma fit in the SEC? What does he "give you"? He certainly doesn't recruit at an elite level. Wisconsin never had top recruiting classes under Bielma. His last 5 classes there ranked 57th, 56th, 40th, 87th, and 43rd nationally, according to Rivals.com. They're presently 2nd to last in SEC recruiting at the moment by the estimation of most recruiting services. That type of recruiting might work in a watered down Big Ten, but he'd better bring something else to the table to succeed in the SEC. Furthermore, what does winning the Big Ten the past three years mean? Michigan was rebuilding and Ohio State has been on probation. So was Penn State. Does a Big Ten title mean any more than a Big East title the past three years? I could make a serious argument that it does not.
Does Bielma provide a tactical advantage? Not really. His teams run a straight ahead rushing attack and have always had solid, not great, defenses. But Bielma's system doesn't do anything to get playmakers in space or put defenses at a disadvantage. Playing Alabama's style and LSU's style with inferior athletes is no way to win the SEC West. Bielma would appear to be a solid motivator, but not one who sets the world on fire. We'll see if that's enough. In my estimation, even though this was the most high profile hire of the four new SEC coaches, it's the one I think most likely to fail.
Tennessee brought in Butch Jones from Cincinnati to replace Dooley. The proud Volunteer program set all sorts of program lows in the past 3-5 years, including most losing seasons in a row (3) in program history. Almost as embarrassing for Vol fans, they trotted out a defense last year that put up less resistance than the French Army. It's been a humbling 5 years for the Volnation. So why should the UT faithful expect anything different from Jones than they got from Lane Kiffin and Dooley after forcing Phillip Fulmer out in 2008? Well, for starters, Jones has a history of success. Neither Kiffin nor Dooley had that. It seems absurd in hindsight, but as prestigious as the Tennessee job is, then-AD Mike Hamilton decided to tap two coaches with no rack record of success in the past two hires. Worse yet, he turned down Kevin Sumlin in favor of Dooley the last time.
In three years at Central Michigan and three years at Cincinnati, Jones won his conference four times and went bowling five times. He has certainly energized the Vol faithful (61,000 at the spring game, despite the recent abysmal seasons), ingratiated himself to former Vol players, and has recruited like a madman. Presently, Tennessee has the nation's #1 ranked recruiting class according to more than one service. It may take a couple of years, but the combination of Jones and Tennessee's arsenal of resources will be a winning combination. Jones brings a dynamic recruiting ability combined with an uncanny ability to motivate. That combination worked extremely well for Nick Saban in returning another fallen power to glory. Moreover, Jones brings an up-tempo offense that gets playmakers the ball in space and is designed to wear defenses into the ground. Jones would appear to have all three of the Big 3 coaching traits. Vol fans should exercise patience, however. The SEC isn't the Big East. And Tennessee doesn't have traditional Tennessee talent, even if it did find a coach. A bowl appearance following the 2013 season would be a great first step.
Mark Stoops raised a few eyebrows when he took the Kentucky job. His star has been on the rise the past few years while coordinating some outstanding Florida State defenses. Many thought he might hold out for a more prestigious job, especially given the cache' his last name carries in college football circles. Credit Kentucky AD Mitch Barnhart (who has to be considered one of the better ADs in America right now) for targeting Stoops and bringing him on board. Since that time, Stoops has recruited at a level Kentucky football has not seen before.
Stoops has been especially successful recruiting his home state of Ohio. Stoops' is a great recruiting strategy for UK: go into neighboring Ohio, one of the top 5 talent-producing states in America, and tell kids that they can move one state south where the weather is better and play in the nation's most elite football conference. Ohio State can't take them all. Moreover, some Ohio kids might not fit Urban Meyer's preferred profile of homicidal female abusing gun carrying future convict. It doesn't hurt that Stoops can tell those kids he's a native or that he can utilize the connections that come with being one. At one point, UK had the #1 class in America according to Rivals.com. While they've fallen off since then, they will finish with a top 15-20 class, which is an amazing accomplishment at Kentucky.
But Stoops' talents don't end with recruiting. He was a great defensive coordinator. Defense, after all, runs in the Stoops' blood. So he also gives Kentucky a tactical advantage on defense. While his ability to motivate is not yet clear (since this is his first head coaching gig), he certainly has Kentucky fans excited about something other than basketball. They set a spring game attendance record with more than 50,000 people in attendance. If he motivates players as well as he motivates fans, Stoops may have all of the Big 3 coaching traits. I'm predicting Stoops will be a great hire for Kentucky and will rank alongside Jones as the two best hires of the four new coaches in 2013. The question after that will be, how long does he stay at Kentucky after he finds success?
Gus Malzahn takes over a very interesting situation. The Auburn program, since the mid 2000's, has been the most schizophrenic in the SEC, maybe America. Under Tommy Tubberville in 2004, Auburn went undefeated and was cheated out of a shot at the National Championship by the AP and Coaches polls so that Oklahoma could practice their semi-annual choke in the Big Game. But by the end of 2008, they found themselves at 5-7 and Tubberville was out the door. Enter Gene Chizik, who had only won two games the prior season at Iowa State. Many Auburn fans were irate that Tubberville had been let go for a guy with a 2-10 record. Two years later, Chizik, with significant help from his offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn and a JUCO transfer QB named Cam Newton, won the BCS Championship. But Newton and Malzahn departed and two years later, Chizik was out of a job. The stage was set for Gus' Return to The Plains.
Malzahn's most obvious talent is as an offensive schemer. "Offensive Guru" is as associated with his name as much as "Defensive Guru" is with Nick Saban's. His offense puts up points at a rapid pace and allows players make plays in space. It's most effective with a QB who can run and throw, but he can also make it work with a drop-back thrower or power Running Backs (remember, it was Malzahn's offense at Arkansas that first made the "Wildcat" popular, using Darren McFadden and Felix Jones in the same backfield to carve up defenses). But his recruiting ability is a question mark. Auburn currently stands between 20-25 in the nation, ranking them 9th in the SEC. While Malzahn's ability to scheme, like Petrino's ability to scheme, mitigates average recruiting, his ability to recruit at the elite level required to win the SEC is a question that must be answered before I'm prepared to rank this hire up there with the Jones and Stoops hire. Still, I think it was a very good one for Auburn.
Time will tell what happens with these four coaches, but being a fan is made more fun because of speculation. So I'll make my prediction. In five years, we will look back on these four hires and see the following:
-Butch Jones will be coaching a powerhouse at Tennessee.
-Mark Stoops will be at a bigger job after giving the Kentucky program a huge boost in four years, winning 9 games (yeah, I said it) in his last season there.
-Gus Malzahn will still be at Auburn. He won't have any SEC titles to his name, but he'll be guiding a consistent program that challenges for the SEC West each year. And if Saban gets tired of dominating at Alabama and moves to the NFL, Malzahn may find himself on the verge of swinging the power in the state back to Auburn.
-Bret Bielma will no longer be at Arkansas. After putting together 6-6 or 7-5 type seasons his first two or three years, his poor recruiting ability will catch up to him and he'll have two losing seasons before getting the boot. But at least he won't have to crash his motorcycle to get it.
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